Scenarios

For the first year Chobani will focus on Shanghai, as this market has a lot of expats and a very high income level. It’s also more accustomed to change. The promotional strategy will be fine-tuned in Shanghai. After the first year, Chobani will expand into the three other Tier 1 cities: Beijing, Guangzhou, and ShenZhen. There will be a two year adjustment period to address new markets and establish a foothold in this market before Chobani begins to expand into the rest of China in Year Four. Full market share of the Chinese Market is 2,838,766,544 yogurts sold per year, based on each consumer buying around 153 yogurts per year, as found to be average in the survey conducted. Keep in mind that this only includes the specified target market and does not account for any sales from other markets or costumers buying for their family members that are not in the target market to consume. The real numbers are likely much higher.

 

Realistic

Realistically Chobani can expect a 10% market share after the first year, 15% after the second year, 50% after the third year when they start to gain momentum, 75% in the fourth year, 80% in the fifth year, 90% in the sixth year, and 95% in years seven through ten as they will likely never gain full saturation of the market due to various factors.

 

Pessimistic

Pessimistically Chobani would expect a 5% market share after the first year, 10% after the second year, and 15% after the third year and on. Pessimistically this product will fail and never reach more than 15% market share.

 

Optimistic

Optimistically Chobani would expect a 15% market share after the first year, 20% after the second year, 70% after the third year when they start to gain momentum, 85% in the fourth year, 95% in the fifth year, and 100% in the sixth year through the tenth year as they have gained full saturation of the market.